Camp and Woolsey Fire Impact on Butte and Ventura County Real Estate

Camp Fire

• The more than 14,000 homes destroyed or damaged in Butte County is equivalent to more than 20 months of recent active listing inventory.
• The $3.0 billion dollars of property within the fire boundaries is equivalent to almost 18 percent of the value of single-family residential properties in Butte County.
• Pending listings have spiked 86 percent in Butte County compared to the week before the fire.
• The number of homes on the market is 45 percent lower than pre-fire inventory projections.
• Views per property in Butte County nearly doubled compared to last year.

Woolsey Fire

• Out of 15,000 structures within the fire boundary, only 1,841 were damaged or destroyed.
• The number of homes on the market is 23 percent lower than pre-fire inventory projections.
• Views per property in Ventura County have already spiked compared to last year.

Camp Fire

The Camp Fire holds the record as the most destructive fire in California history and is expected to have one of the most dramatic impacts on a local housing market that we’ve ever seen. The damage was extensive.  The more than 14,000 homes destroyed or damaged in Butte County is equivalent to more than 20 months of recent active listing inventory in the area. Measured another way, the $3.0 billion dollars of property within the fire boundaries is equivalent to almost 18 percent of the value of single-family residential properties in Butte County.

Views per property in Butte County have already nearly doubled compared to last year and pending listings are up 86 percent compared to the week before the fire, which shows demand in the area is already surging with displaced residents scrambling to find shelter. Many of those who lost their homes have already received their insurance payouts and are putting cash offers down on homes, making the market extremely competitive. Realtor.com listings data for the last half of November shows the number of homes on the market are 45 percent lower than projections based on the pre-fire trend and suggests an inventory decline of this magnitude could be in store in the coming months.

The massive spike in demand and extremely limited supply have sparked bidding wars and caused many post-fire home sales to go far above the asking price. As a result, sales are expected to temporarily increase, and then decline as available inventory is sold off and demand hits the wall of a decreased housing stock.

Looking forward, those who lost their homes have a tough road ahead. The market was already tight with only 810 homes for sale in the week before the fire. Now, with 14,000 residences destroyed and only 405 homes for sale, we are likely to see prices increase in the near-term as the imbalance between demand and supply is now more acute.

Woolsey Fire

Though not as extensive as the Camp Fire, and not as destructive as it could have been, the Woolsey Fire is expected to have an impact on the surrounding housing market. While only 1,841 of 15,000 structures within the fire boundary were damaged or destroyed, disruption to the local market is already evident.

Looking at the last half of November, there are already 23 percent fewer homes on the market in Ventura County than were projected based on pre-fire trends. Unlike the Camp Fire, total listings views remained unchanged in the area surrounding the Woolsey Fire, but with fewer properties on the market for sale, each available listing is receiving noticeably more traffic as displaced residents search for homes. Based on this trend, we’re on track to see a 77 percent spike year over year in views per listing in December in Ventura County.

The homes affected by the Woolsey fire were more expensive than surrounding area with a median value of $985,000 within the fire boundary vs. $685,00 for Ventura County. In fact, late November data suggests that the missing fire-damaged listings have shifted the type of homes available for sale in the area and created a higher concentration of more affordable homes than what was common before the fire, and this could shift the median price lower.

Looking forward, increased demand is going to make it difficult for displaced residents. But with more affordable inventory for sale in the area, those affected by the Woolsey Fire are likely to have an easier time finding a home than those impacted by the Camp Fire. Prior to the fire, Ventura County was on a trajectory of increasing inventory, with 3,355 homes available for sale the week before the fire. Now, with 1,500 structures destroyed and only 2,741 homes for sale, we are likely to see same-home prices increase in the face of high demand, even as summary measures for the area may suggest that prices have slipped.